The next decade will reshape product management as technological advancements, particularly in AI, redefine work and organizational structures. Concepts from historical materialism and cliodynamics—the study of historical cycles driven by societal and material forces—offer a lens for understanding these changes. Here’s what product managers should anticipate and how they can prepare.
Expertise Will Shift to Judgment
AI is increasingly automating tasks once handled by specialists. This reduces the value of narrow expertise and elevates the need for judgment—deciding what problems to solve, interpreting AI-generated insights, and aligning teams.
Preparation:
Focus on decision-making and prioritization skills.
Develop the ability to critically assess AI outputs rather than simply rely on them.
Workforce Dynamics Will Evolve
As AI creates a stratified workforce, organizations may face tensions between those who adapt to new roles and those displaced by automation. Managing these dynamics will be critical.
Preparation:
Design workflows and products that integrate diverse skill levels.
Invest in understanding the social impact of automation within teams and user bases.
Power Structures Will Change
Historical cycles show that new technologies often disrupt existing hierarchies, creating tensions between those who benefit and those left behind. Product managers will need to navigate these shifts both within organizations and in the markets they serve.
Preparation:
Build equitable products that address the needs of all user segments.
Lead with transparency to build trust and navigate internal resistance.
Economic Pressures Will Shape Innovation
Technologies succeed when they align with underlying economic realities. Products that amplify human capabilities, rather than replace them, are more likely to succeed in a workforce already facing uncertainty.
Preparation:
Prioritize solutions that address economic constraints and user needs.
Anticipate resistance to products perceived as overly disruptive or inequitable.
Planning for Uncertainty
Historical cycles emphasize the importance of preparing for turbulence. Product managers will need to adapt to regulatory shifts, changing user behaviors, and geopolitical instability.
Preparation:
Use scenario planning to anticipate potential disruptions.
Build resilient products that can adapt to changing conditions.
Staying Relevant in 2025
The product manager of 2025 and beyond will be less about execution and more about strategy. Success will require understanding the broader forces shaping markets and teams, from economic pressures to societal dynamics. By focusing on judgment, adaptability, and inclusion, product managers can stay relevant and guide their organizations through the changes ahead.
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